Lies, Damn Lies and...

The numbers don't lie - but some of them do

 

And so this is Covid. And what have we done?

Apparently we're in the grip of a global pandemic, and hence we're being bombarded with conflicting facts. Or are they facts? As is usual in circumstances like this, the conspiracy theorists are having a field day.

I have no issue with conspiracy theories per se. I'm perfectly willing to accept the posulation that governments lie, but my innate scepticism causes me to question those who question. Take, as an example, this extremely well-argued view from Paul Weston.

My first reaction to this video was that the logic is unassailable. But then we're left with a choice: are governments mendacious or stupid? If it's just stupidity, then are we to believe that all of the world's governments are equally stupid? And if it's mendacity, then cui bono? Who benefits from the lie? The popular response, of course, is that it's the drug companies, and that's a possibility I can't deny. But are they really that powerful - in every country?

 

 

I considered this for a while and rewatched the video. Then, I think, I spotted the sleight of hand. Weston points to a 2.3% mean inaccuracy, and if you subract that from the positive tests, you're left with zero. Hey presto, no positive cases! But he's ignoring half of the data. The inaccuracy is plus or minus, not just minus. The uncertainty is above or below the stated figure. Hence, the figure is equally likely to be an underestimate. Let me be clear though that I offer this view with no pretence of statistical expertise.

And when responsibility for our national well-being is handed to someone like Man Cockhat, I'm more than ready to embrace the idiocy option.